36:47
World View with Marites Vitug: Enrico Gloria on how countries negotiate with China
Rappler
Overview
This video features an interview with Enrico Gloria, an expert on China's foreign policy, discussing the complex relationship between the Philippines and China. Gloria emphasizes the importance of continuous dialogue and a nuanced understanding of China's motivations, particularly concerning territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea. He highlights the significance of 'saving face' in Chinese foreign policy and suggests strategies for the Philippines to navigate this asymmetrical relationship, including focusing on common interests, hedging, and leveraging ASEAN. The discussion also touches upon China's use of sanctions as a coercive tool and the challenges of espionage.
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Chapters
- Philippines-China relations are currently strained due to recent incidents like skirmishes in the West Philippine Sea and the arrest of Filipino workers in China.
- These tensions have become a recurring status quo since 2018, requiring active management rather than outright resolution.
- The primary approach for the Philippines should be continuous dialogue and diplomacy, coupled with a deeper understanding of China's underlying interests beyond territorial claims.
Understanding the current low point and the recurring nature of tensions is crucial for developing effective strategies to manage the relationship and prevent further escalation.
The skirmish in the Second Thomas Shoal where a Filipino sailor was injured, and the subsequent arrest of 100 Filipino nationals in China.
- China perceives the Philippines as a passive actor, often assuming its foreign policy is dictated by patrons like the United States.
- Beijing needs to recognize that the West Philippine Sea is integral to Filipino national identity and ontological security, not just a pawn in US-China competition.
- China's foreign policy is heavily influenced by a desire to 'save face' and regain respect, stemming from historical 'centuries of humiliation'.
Recognizing China's perception of respect and historical grievances is key to understanding their reactions and formulating diplomatic approaches that avoid unnecessary provocation.
China's frustration when it feels 'humiliated' by the Philippines, leading to a desire for more respect in bilateral relations.
- The Philippines, as a smaller power, faces an asymmetrical relationship with China, requiring skillful diplomacy.
- Key negotiation principles include focusing on common interests (like poverty eradication and economic development), hedging by diversifying partnerships, and leveraging ASEAN as a bloc.
- The Philippines' transparency initiative, while educating its citizens, can sometimes be counterproductive by making China feel disrespected and undermining trust.
Understanding and applying these principles can help the Philippines negotiate more effectively from a position of relative weakness and protect its national interests.
The Philippines pursuing multilateral partnerships with countries like Australia, alongside its existing alliance with the US, as a form of hedging.
- The Philippines' transparency initiative, while successful in informing its public and garnering external support, may need calibration.
- Overly publicizing skirmishes can be perceived by China as a loss of face, potentially hindering diplomatic efforts.
- A recalibrated transparency initiative should prioritize educating the Filipino populace about their rights in the West Philippine Sea while potentially reducing the emphasis on publicizing every incident to international audiences.
Balancing the need for public awareness and accountability with the imperative of maintaining open channels for dialogue is crucial for effective foreign policy.
Calibrating the transparency initiative to focus more on internal education rather than international broadcast of every maritime incident.
- Provisional agreements between the Philippines and China have faced challenges due to ambiguity and a lack of unified institutional ownership within the Philippine government.
- Different agencies providing conflicting information about agreements creates confusion and undermines trust.
- While these agreements signify ongoing dialogue, their unraveling highlights the need for clearer communication and a consistent, unified voice from the Philippines.
The difficulties in implementing provisional agreements underscore the importance of internal coordination and clear communication in foreign policy dealings.
Conflicting statements from the Philippine Defense Secretary and the DFA regarding knowledge of and consent to a provisional understanding.
- China possesses a sophisticated and wide range of coercive tools, including economic pressure and targeted sanctions, to protect its interests.
- These measures are often employed when China feels its 'respect' or 'red lines' are challenged, going beyond mere economic impact to send signals.
- China may use 'light-handed' sanctions to signal displeasure and encourage a return to sincere negotiations, rather than to cripple an economy.
Understanding China's strategic use of sanctions is vital for smaller nations to anticipate and mitigate potential economic and diplomatic repercussions.
The arrest of 100 Filipino workers in China, which China might frame as standard procedure but is perceived as a coercive measure.
- While not all individuals studying or working in China are agents, caution is warranted due to competing territorial interests.
- Red flags for potential recruitment into espionage include unsanctioned engagements, lack of transparency, unrecognized institutions, and unusual communication methods.
- Critical evaluation of engagements with China is necessary to ensure credibility and avoid being drawn into activities that could compromise national interests.
Awareness of potential espionage tactics and red flags is crucial for protecting national security and ensuring that people-to-people exchanges remain constructive.
Engagements that are not sanctioned by Philippine government agencies or involve unrecognized institutions can be a warning sign.
- A 'hot economics, cold politics' approach is a common strategy in Philippine-China relations, allowing for economic cooperation despite political tensions.
- This separation is possible only to a certain extent, as certain 'red lines' for both countries cannot be crossed without severe repercussions.
- Continued economic prosperity is achievable even amidst ongoing maritime disputes, provided these fundamental boundaries are respected.
This dual-track approach allows for pragmatic engagement, enabling economic benefits while managing, rather than resolving, the core security disputes.
Filipino businessmen continuing to trade with Chinese suppliers despite daily news of tensions in the South China Sea.
Key takeaways
- Continuous dialogue and diplomacy are paramount for managing tensions between the Philippines and China, even when foundational disagreements exist.
- China's foreign policy is significantly influenced by its historical experiences and a strong emphasis on 'saving face' and maintaining respect.
- Smaller nations can negotiate more effectively with larger powers by focusing on common interests, diversifying partnerships (hedging), and utilizing regional blocs like ASEAN.
- The Philippines' transparency initiative, while valuable for domestic awareness, needs careful calibration to avoid provoking China and undermining trust.
- Ambiguity and a lack of unified government messaging have hampered the effectiveness of provisional agreements between the two countries.
- China employs a sophisticated array of non-military coercive tools, including sanctions, to signal its displeasure and enforce its perceived red lines.
- While people-to-people exchanges are valuable, vigilance is required to identify and avoid potential espionage recruitment, especially given competing territorial interests.
- A pragmatic approach of separating economic relations from security disputes ('hot economics, cold politics') can be effective, but only within defined limits that respect each nation's core interests.
Key terms
West Philippine SeaSouth China SeaOntological SecuritySaving FaceAsymmetrical RelationshipHedgingASEANTransparency InitiativeProvisional AgreementSanctionsDiasporaEspionageHot Economics, Cold Politics
Test your understanding
- What is the primary diplomatic strategy the Philippines should employ to ease tensions with China, according to Enrico Gloria?
- Why is the concept of 'saving face' so important in understanding China's foreign policy and its reactions to the Philippines?
- How can a smaller country like the Philippines effectively negotiate with a larger power like China, based on the principles discussed?
- What are the potential downsides of the Philippines' transparency initiative, and how might it be recalibrated?
- What are the key factors that have led to the unraveling of provisional agreements between the Philippines and China?
- How does China's use of sanctions differ from traditional economic sanctions, and what is its primary objective when employing these measures?