24:59
Futures General Commentary - July 20, 2026
The Inner Circle Trader
Overview
This video provides a technical analysis of futures markets, focusing on crude oil, gold, Bitcoin, and silver. The presenter discusses potential price movements based on historical patterns, seasonal tendencies, and market maker models. Key themes include identifying liquidity pools, understanding fair value gaps, and the impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices. The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach due to current market volatility and the importance of independent research, particularly when considering seasonal trends and avoiding common trading pitfalls.
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Chapters
- The economic calendar for the week is light, suggesting a potential lack of major news catalysts for volatility.
- The market is currently trading within a range, showing a premium opening relative to the regular trading hours.
- The presenter is adopting a 'wait and see' approach, observing the opening range for clear directional signals.
- A key observation is the potential for a 'silver bullet' at 10:00 AM, often a point of significant price movement.
Understanding the initial market sentiment and key price levels during the opening range is crucial for setting short-term trading expectations and identifying potential entry or exit points.
The presenter discusses watching the opening range and waiting until 10:00 AM for a potential price move, referencing a 'silver bullet' concept.
- Crude oil has recently moved into a bullish fair value gap after filling a previous gap and showing balance.
- Seasonal tendencies suggest an upward price movement for energy commodities from early July through October due to increased demand for stockpiling by large companies.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, can significantly disrupt these seasonal patterns and cause sharp price increases, acting as event-driven catalysts.
- The market structure for crude oil currently shows no inherent reasons for lower prices, despite potential for short-term pullbacks.
- The presenter notes that unlike stocks, commodities like oil have real supply and demand factors influencing their price.
This section highlights how both predictable seasonal patterns and unpredictable geopolitical events can influence crude oil prices, requiring traders to consider multiple factors.
The presenter explains that large energy companies buy heating oil, unlited gas, and natural gas in the summer months to meet winter demand, driving prices up from July to October.
- The presenter outlines a 'market maker buy model' scenario, involving initial accumulation, a low-risk buy, and then using a fair value gap as a stepping stone for higher prices.
- Specific price levels are identified as potential draws on liquidity, with an ideal scenario involving a dip to clear sell-side liquidity before rallying.
- A 'bullish suspension block' is discussed as a potential area for price to interact with, possibly dipping slightly below previous lows.
- The presenter suggests that current market conditions and historical data point towards potential upside for crude oil, possibly leading to a significant bull market.
Understanding market maker models and identifying key price levels helps in anticipating potential price movements and strategic entry points in the crude oil market.
The presenter describes a scenario where the market comes down to a specific low, clears sell-side liquidity, and then uses a bullish fair value gap to rally higher, acting as a 'stepping stall'.
- The presenter expresses a strong bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin, suggesting it is heading towards zero.
- The common online advice to 'never sell Bitcoin' is criticized as potentially leading traders to hold onto losing assets.
- The analogy of a 'sinking ship' and 'lifeboats' is used to illustrate the danger of not taking profits or exiting losing positions.
- While acknowledging strong long-term support, the immediate outlook is presented as extremely negative.
This section serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the importance of independent analysis and risk management, rather than blindly following popular trading advice, especially in volatile assets like Bitcoin.
The presenter uses the analogy of people being told they are 'stupid' if they sell their Bitcoin, even as the price is falling, likening it to refusing to leave a sinking ship.
- Gold has hit previous targets, and the presenter anticipates a potential swipe of sell-side liquidity before a possible pullback.
- There is currently no strong indication for a long position in gold, and taking profits is advised.
- Silver also experienced difficulty and fell short of some objectives, showing an inefficiency that needs to be addressed.
- The presenter expresses less conviction in the immediate outlook for gold and silver compared to crude oil.
This provides a brief technical outlook on gold and silver, advising caution and profit-taking based on current price action and liquidity levels.
The presenter mentions that gold has hit targets and suggests 'the old man told you it'd be uncivilized if you didn't take some profits up in here,' implying a need to secure gains.
- Seasonal tendencies in commodities are presented as reliable tools, similar to expecting certain weather patterns based on the time of year.
- Deviations from seasonal tendencies can be strong indicators of underlying market weakness or strength, especially when they contradict expectations.
- The presenter criticizes inexperienced traders who dismiss seasonal tendencies without understanding their probabilistic nature.
- Historical analysis, including extreme events like the negative oil prices in 2020, shows how unforeseen circumstances can destabilize typical patterns.
This section underscores the value of using historical data and seasonal patterns as part of a broader analytical framework, while also stressing the need for critical thinking and independent verification.
The presenter compares seasonal tendencies to expecting snow in July in the US, stating that while rare exceptions occur, betting against the strong probability is usually unwise.
Key takeaways
- Light economic calendars can lead to markets trading within established ranges, making opening range analysis critical.
- Geopolitical events can override seasonal tendencies in commodity markets, leading to unexpected price volatility.
- Market maker models and liquidity concepts are essential for understanding potential price targets and entry/exit strategies.
- Blindly following popular trading advice, especially regarding assets like Bitcoin, can lead to significant losses; independent research is paramount.
- Seasonal tendencies in commodities are probabilistic tools that, when understood correctly, can offer valuable insights into potential price movements.
- Extreme historical events, like the negative crude oil prices, can temporarily destabilize predictable market patterns.
- Taking profits and managing risk are crucial, even when popular sentiment suggests holding an asset.
Key terms
Fair Value Gap (FVG)Liquidity Pools (Buy Side/Sell Side)Opening RangeMarket Maker ModelSeasonal TendenciesBullish Suspension BlockVolume ImbalanceEvent Driven MarketOrder BlockPremium/Discount Array
Test your understanding
- How does a light economic calendar typically influence market volatility and trading strategies?
- What are the primary factors the presenter identifies as driving crude oil prices, and how do they interact?
- Why does the presenter advise caution regarding popular sentiment on Bitcoin, and what analogy is used to illustrate this point?
- How can seasonal tendencies in commodities be used as a trading tool, and what are the implications if prices move contrary to these tendencies?
- What is the significance of identifying 'liquidity pools' and 'fair value gaps' in technical analysis?