Part of ALG-04 — Probability & Distributions

Binomial Distribution Deep Dive

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The binomial distribution arises from n independent Bernoulli trials with constant success probability p.

Conditions for Binomial:

  1. Fixed number of trials n
  2. Each trial is independent
  3. Each trial has exactly two outcomes
  4. P(success) = p is constant across trials

Key formulas:

  • P(X=r) = C(n,r)*prp^r*q^(n-r), where q = 1-p
  • E(X) = np (average number of successes)
  • Var(X) = npq (spread of the distribution)
  • Mode = floor((n+1)p) when (n+1)p is not an integer

Finding parameters from conditions:

  • Given mean and variance: q = VarMean\frac{Var}{Mean}, p = 1-q, n = Meanp\frac{Mean}{p}
  • Example: mean=4, var=3 gives q=3/4, p=1/4, n=16

Common computations:

  • P(at least k): use complement for small k. P(X>=2) = 1-P(0)-P(1)
  • P(at most k): direct sum P(0)+P(1)+...+P(k)
  • P(exactly k): single term C(n,k)*pkp^k*q^(n-k)

Ratio test for mode: PX=rP\frac{X=r}{P}(X=r-1) = (n-r+1)prq\frac{p}{rq}. P(X=r) increases while this ratio > 1.

When NOT to use binomial:

  • Drawing without replacement (use hypergeometric)
  • Variable number of trials (use geometric)
  • More than two outcomes per trial (use multinomial)

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