Part of ALG-04 — Probability & Distributions

Bayes' Theorem Framework

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Bayes' theorem reverses the direction of conditional probability. Given partition B1B_1, B2B_2, ..., BnB_n of the sample space:

P(BiB_i|A) = P(A|BiB_i) * P(BiB_i) / [sum over j: P(A|BjB_j) * P(BjB_j)]

The denominator is the Total Probability: P(A) = sum P(A|BjB_j) * P(BjB_j).

Step-by-step approach (BAIT):

  1. Branches: Identify the partitioning events (e.g., which box, which machine)
  2. Assign priors: Write P(BiB_i) for each branch
  3. Input likelihoods: Write P(A|BiB_i) — probability of observed event given each branch
  4. Total and compute: Calculate denominator then apply formula

Common JEE pattern: "Given the item is defective, what is the probability it came from machine A?" This is a classic reverse conditional — use Bayes'.

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