Bayes' theorem reverses the direction of conditional probability. Given partition , , ..., of the sample space:
P(|A) = P(A|) * P() / [sum over j: P(A|) * P()]
The denominator is the Total Probability: P(A) = sum P(A|) * P().
Step-by-step approach (BAIT):
- Branches: Identify the partitioning events (e.g., which box, which machine)
- Assign priors: Write P() for each branch
- Input likelihoods: Write P(A|) — probability of observed event given each branch
- Total and compute: Calculate denominator then apply formula
Common JEE pattern: "Given the item is defective, what is the probability it came from machine A?" This is a classic reverse conditional — use Bayes'.